The Morning After: EU Referendum Breakfast
By Saxton Bampfylde
Saxton Bampfylde teamed up with communications firm Pagefield to hold a post-referendum 'The morning after' breakfast. The event had an incredibly strong panel comprised of the great and the good, the political cognoscenti and the city: Sir Christopher Meyer former US Ambassador, Kevin Maguire political journalist and Associate Editor of Trinity Mirror, Andrew Pierce journalist and Editor at Large for the Daily Mail and Elissa Bayer, Head of Private Clients, Investec. ITV’s Daisy McAndrew led the team through the maze of dizzying implications of the vote to leave the European Union. The panel dealt with the issues very succinctly providing a high degree of analysis to the various questions.
It was agreed that the climate we all woke up to face this am was one of fear and uncertainty regardless of whether you were on the losing or winning team. The panel dealt with political, economic and business issues arising from today's momentous decision. The stock market falls through to the question of who will lead the country through this period of uncertainty were both covered.
An up sum of questions arising from the result:
- Will Scotland now force a second referendum and now leave in all likelihood?
- What will the leadership of both parties look like post referendum?
- Will there be a re-emergence of Nick Clegg?
- How does it actually happen? Disengaging from Europe?
- How will it affect the economy?
Nicola Sturgeon will have a lot of thinking to do. The Opinion of the panel was that in general she would not jump to bring one forward quickly. She would be under pressure not to from other European countries where there are similar political schisms.
The runners and riders of the Conservative leadership issue was covered by Andrew Pearce: Boris Johnson in a race to the leadership with not with Gove but possibly Theresa May who clearly has his endorsement.
The possibility of the Conservative leadership race between now and October being a bitterly fought battle between two: Boris and Gove subsided as Andrew expressed a view concerning the former's lack of popularity within the Tory ranks. No one on the panel thought a re-emergence of the Lib Dems likely.
The process through which the UK disembarks is Article 50. Sir christopher explained the mechanics of this and the timing: it won't happen over night and when it does the Uk is not in the room when the details are worked out by the remaining states. Therefore this will be a moment to watch and learn from.
Elissa talked the group through the immediate plummet of the financial and stock markets on the announcement. She explained that although these were negative and immediate the longer term would be more stable. The bigger worry was the impact unseen. -
Companies were not taken by surprise: the financial centre has been preparing and units of back office functions will move back to the continent endangering London's position as the European centre of finance. The long term effect on jobs and therefore the general economy was the more worrying and unknown bi-product of todays' momentous news.
It was an informative and enjoyable event. Altogether a good way to start a memorable day enjoyed by clients past present and future in equal portions.